El Niño

When the Pacific Ocean warms, the weather gets weird.

For many Americans, 2013 ended with an unusually bitter cold snap. Late November and December brought early snow and bone-chilling temperatures in much of the country. For the first time in two decades, record-cold days outnumbered record-warm ones.

But the U.S. was the exception, globally, November was the warmest ever. Early data indicates that 2013 was the fourth-hottest year on record. Enjoy memories of 2013. Chances are good that 2014 will be even hotter – perhaps the hottest year since records have been kept. That’s because 2014 will be an El Nino year.

El Nino, Spanish for “the boy,” occurs when the surface ocean waters in the southern Pacific becomes abnormally warm. Because the Pacific covers 30% of the planet’s surface, the additional energy generated by its warming causes an assortment of weather changes around the world.

Los Ninos are associated with abnormally dry conditions in Southeast Asia and Australia and a weakening of the Indian monsoon. They may cause extreme rain in parts of North and South America, even as Africa experiences drought. Marine life may be affected, too, since El Nino can reduce the up-swelling of cold, nutrient-rich water that supports large fish populations. And unusually warm ocean temperatures can destroy coral.

The strong Los Ninos cost the U.S. an estimated $25 billion, and studies have linked the phenomenon to outbreaks of tropical diseases and higher rates of civil war. Research shows that a powerful El Nino from 1789 to 1793 devastated crops in Europe, which helped spark the French Revolution. The three warmest years on record, 1998, 2005 and 2010, were El Nino years. In order for climatologists to declare an El Nino in effect there must be three months of ocean temperatures that are at least 0.9 degrees F. higher than average. Predictions are that temperatures greater than that will be reached in 2014. So be prepared.

2014 may be a record breaker on many fronts.